On Impeachment and Trump
Not since the impeachment of Bill Clinton in 1998 has the process
of Presidential impeachment been more relevant or timely, as proceedings begin in
earnest against President Donald Trump for alleged wrongdoing regarding Ukraine.
The process of removal of a sitting US President requires an impeachment by simple
majority in the House of Representatives and a conviction by two-thirds of the
Senate. Only two Presidents have been impeached in the history of the United
States have been impeached, first Andrew Johnson in 1868 for dismissing is
secretary of war, then Bill Clinton in 1998 for lying under oath; though neither
were convicted by the Senate. President Richard Nixon also faced impeachment
proceedings over the Watergate scandal in 1974, though in the face of an almost-guaranteed
conviction, he resigned before he could be impeached. The situation facing Donald
Trump is arguably greater than those crises that shook the White Houses of 1974
and 1998, and could well result in the unprecedented removal of a sitting US President.
Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution states that the
President may be removed from office on impeachment and conviction for ‘Treason,
Bribery or other high Crimes or Misdemeanours’, the first two of which are not
problematic, and have easily determinable legal meanings. Adler et al. cite the
lack of clarity in the phrase ‘other high crimes and misdemeanours’ as a
complication to the process of impeachment, as Congress form the decision as to
what can constitute a ‘high crime or misdemeanour’, and their designations may therefore
change from year to year (Adler et al., ‘Impeachment’). Impeachment has been
called by many a political, not a legal decision, as it serves to hold to
account the people’s elected representatives for their misdoings whilst in
office, beyond the purview of their position (Adler et al.; Victor). With this
as a starting point, Victor goes on to outline six criteria that might make a
particular action by a President an impeachable offence in what she describes
as a ‘hot take’ on impeachment in the wake of the announcement proceedings were
to begin against President Trump.
There are a number of incidents that could be used as
avenues of inquiry towards impeachment, such as the accusation of collusion with
Russia during the 2016 Presidential campaign, the allegation Trump obstructed justice
during the investigation into the aforementioned allegation (Victor). Most notably
however would be the allegation from a whistle-blower that Trump might have utilised
his position as President to orchestrate an investigation into political rival
Joe Biden by the Ukrainian Prime Minister, through a quid pro quo withholding
of financial aid. Victor’s take-away is Trump’s accused wrongdoings regarding
Ukraine fulfil all six of her criteria for an impeachable offence, more so than
Clinton’s lying under oath, or Nixon’s involvement in the Watergate scandal;
this is particularly shocking as Nixon resigned before any action could be
taken against him, as he likely knew the inevitability of his conviction,
should he have been tried, whereas Trump appears unyielding in the face of what
could be the first Senate conviction of a sitting President. The problem with any
analysis on Trump’s impeachment proceedings is the blatant and unavoidable lack
of a representative sample on which to base our assessments. With impeachment
only having occurred twice in history, under unique circumstances each time, we
remain in uncharted territory throughout this process; nobody knows what is to
come, other than the procedural certainties imposed by the Constitution.
Source: Gallup Polling (McCarthy)
The final stage, in the aftermath of a possible impeachment in
the Democrat-held House of Representatives, will be decided by the Republican Senate,
and though President Trump has been no friend to many in his Congressional party,
his popular support might well decide the outcome of any trial, as many in the
party seeking reelection would not wish to disenchant their Republican supporters.
The required two thirds Senate majority for conviction would require over a
third of Republican senators to vote in opposition of their own party’s de facto
leader and likely 2020 nominee, assuming all other Senators vote to convict. One
might presume Senators to vote along party lines with few dissenters, as the Democrats
did in 1999 in their verdict on Bill Clinton’s trial, it is however, not
unheard of that support for impeachment might transcend partisan divisions, as
Nixon was informed he would only have had the support of 15 Senators, despite
his party holding 40 seats (Black, 978). Further, we might expect Trump to lose
in the Senate, should proceedings get that far, due to his very public arguing
with Republicans on Capitol Hill, and owing to Gallup polling showing a recent
bump in public support for impeachment, so Senators are less likely to have to
support the President for re-election; The Washington Post asserts that the last
time public support for impeachment was higher was just days before Nixon’s
resignation (Bump).
In closing, the impeachment proceedings brought against President
Trump are unprecedented in nature and will most likely mar his legacy, as they
did with Nixon’s and to a lesser extent, Clinton’s. His brash and uncouth style
of politics might provide him great support among his base, though they cannot
have helped his support on the Hill, which he will desperately need in the
coming months; when the Senate, almost inevitably, decides their verdict, he will
have to hope to retain at least a modicum of support among his own party, or he
might make history in the worst possible way for a President.
Sources:
Adler, E. S. et al. (2000) The United States Congress.
New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
Black, C. (2007) Richard M. Nixon: A Life in Full.
New York: PublicAffairs Books.
Bump, P. (2019, October 16) Only once has Gallup seen more
support for removing a president. Nixon was gone four days later. The
Washington Post. Retrieved from <https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/16/only-once-has-gallup-seen-more-support-removing-president-nixon-was-gone-four-days-later/>
(accessed 10/16/2019)
McCarthy, J. (2019, October 16) Congress Approval, Support for Impeaching Trump Both Up. Retrieved from <https://news.gallup.com/poll/267491/congress-approval-support-impeaching-trump.aspx> (accessed 10/16/2019)
Victor, J. N. (2019, September 24). Why Impeachment is
Starting Now, In One Chart. Retrieved from <https://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/post/why-impeachment-is-starting-now-in-one-chart>
(accessed 10/16/2019)
I really enjoyed your argument that we are in unprecedented territory as we have never removed a sitting president from office. As you lay out all the scandals that have involved the Trump White House, I wonder if including the Russia probe outcomes (leaving no determination on obstruction of justice) with these affairs with Ukraine would hurt the Democrats when trying to impeach, as it might appear that they have been trying to oust Trump from the beginning. I also wonder how timing will play into impeachment: the longer this inquiry lasts, I assume the more it becomes likely that the public’s interest will wane and they will want to focus more on 2020 and other issues.
ReplyDeleteThank you for your post, I appreciated the general information provided about Trump's impeachment situation as well as the brief history into other impeachment proceedings that have happened in the U.S. I have not personally looked into all the ins-and-outs of Trumps situation so I am not completely educated on how/why Trump might be in hot water with this impeachment proceeding. However, from what I know and what I understand, I think it would possibly be a mistake for the Democrats to try to impeach for 2 main reasons. First, we already so close to the next presidential election and I fear an attempt to impeach might rally Trump's base and work within his favor in the upcoming election. And second, I fear in the eyes of the American citizenry that the act of impeachment might be seen as a purely political move on behalf of the Democrats which will like cause a reactionary movement against Democrats and result in them losing the house.
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